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Saturday, April 18, 2009

Early trends


One of the most sensible things the Election Commission has done is to ban exit polls. They were being misused quite blatantly to try and influence voters--the UP Assembly election of 2008 was a textbook case of partisan psephology.

Yesterday I spent the afternoon looking at some raw data of an exit poll of Phase 1 by one psephologist. I don't want to go into the numbers game because that is improper. However, there are some clear trends that I thought fit to share. These are not my conclusions but based entirely on the data of one pollster. Read it with interest but read it with caution too.

  • The Congress is facing a complete rout in Telengana. The TRS-TDP combine is likely to make a clean sweep of the region. Chiranjeevi did well but not enough to win Lok Sabha seats.
  • Lalu Prasad Yadav is quite beleaguered in Bihar but Congress has come to his partial assistance by weaning away some upper-caste support from the NDA.
  • The BJP is doing spectacularly well in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
  • The Congress is the principal beneficiary of a split in anti-Congress votes between the BJP and BJD in Orissa. Naveen Patnaik's gamble may not pay off unless he stages a dramatic recovery in coastal Orissa in Phase-2.
  • UP remains a picture of fragmentation but the BJP appears to have performed remarkably well in Phase 1, dewspite low voting in the urban segments. The SP has suffered and the Congress is still not in a winning position. Mayawati is nNumber One in eastern UP.
  • Kerala appears to have gone the UDF way conclusively.

These are trends as deduced from the exit polls. They are not the last word on the subject.

23 comments:

iamfordemocracy said...

Swapanda, one simple question. The election commissioners have not been chosen by consensus or by consultation across political spectrum. What is the chance there will be selective rigging and BJP will be knocked out in an unfair manner?

Is there any forum available in India that is truly independent? If there were complaints or suspicions in this respect, where can the agrieved party go for justice?

Finally, what is the chance that the exit polls have been banned to make sure people have no chance to form their opinion about the possible outcome?

robin said...

Kerala vote percentage has been higher as the intial figures were wrong. What we expect is a sweep -winner takes it all

Prasanna said...

Swapanda

You had earlier written that BJD's decision to go it alone in Odisha was partially attributable to BJP's exaggerated assessment of its own strength in Orissa.This was one of the very few instances when i found myself in disagreement with you

Ruthless manner in which Naveen executed BJP's exit from alliance and brazen way in which he joined forces with CPM Mafioso pointed out to a pre-determined strategy.

If early signals are any indication i think Naveen has written the script for this own downfall betraying utter political naivety.I dont think he has the wherewithal to sustain a spell in the opposition

Do you think the combined power of globally networked Leftist media and Church Inc by their relentless false propaganda on Kandamahal unnerved Naveen Patnaik?Our left-liberal media did their part by playing up his honest quotient which might have made Naveen develop a sense of delusion and invincibility

I think Nitish is similarly being setup from the Dilli intelligenstia so that he can be amenable to their favourite Congress party by breaking ranks with NDA.It appears they have suddenly discovered the virtues of Nitish .Also Laloo's despicable buffonnery (which was downplayed during the UPA rule to project him as a super minister) is suddenly being highlighted .

I hope Nitsih does not do a Naveen.Signals are not very encouraging though.

Swapan Dasgupta said...

I tend to agree with Prasanna that Naveen may have been moved by the Left-liberal indignation over Kandhamal. He fell prey to those in his party who wanted a break with the BJP. The BJP didn't help matters by not being a little more realistic in its early negotiations. Anyway, I fear the net result will not be beneficial to either BJP or BJD. Unless, of course, Naveen sweeps the coastal districts.

Know the verity said...

Swapan da, the ground reports and hearsay I got from my sources indicates that Joshi ji has lost from Varanasi. My sense is BJP is again wrongly estimating its number in U.P.

ankan said...

Make no mistake, after the elections Congress will get express support of the fourth front. It is also going to ask the Communists to support it, and there is little chance that the Communists will say no (that will have to mean that TNC will walk out). If this combination does not work out, Congress will dump DMK for AIADMK and SP for BSP.

As it seems evident, the next government will have to be formed on the basis of who cannot go with whom. So, the best case scenario for the nationalists is:

1. BJD suffers enough in Orissa that it has to, and can, take support of BJP to form its government in Orissa. It would be a net loss of seats from last elections but would still be part of best case scenario.

2. Mamata does well enough that ABS(Left - TNC) is minimized. This will probably be around 30 after the votes are counted.

3. Similar to 2, ABS(BSP -SP) is minimized. Both being small is good :)

4. Congress gets routed in AP, i.e. TDP wins as many seats as possible.

5. ABS (AIADMK - DMK) is not too large.

Murali Ravi said...

Swapanda,

Could you please also tell about Maharashtra phase1 (13 seats went for polls)

Knowtheverify,

May we know what your ground level info is, do you live in varanasi, there are lost of rumours like this floating around.

Anonymous said...

Swapanda,

Shouldn't Shivraj Patil be the face of the UPA's anti-terror record?

Under whom the home ministry infamously failed to solve a single case among the scores of terror attacks nationwide, precisely due to vote bank considerations?

In fact the few leads they did get came first from Gujrat, a state to whom the same Home ministry denied GUJCOCA whilst neighboring UPA ruled MH was allowed its MCOCA - a display of brazen partisan politicking with security issues.

Just wondering on what basis the UPA can fight the security-lapses accusation of the oppn.

-Sudhir

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Thanks for this - at least it is not biased.

And no word across media on Teesta - why this complete blanking out? Is Rajdeep Sardesai trying to get a scoop behind the scoop or is he sulking !!

Anonymous said...

Swapanda, what about Maharashtra? You did not mention Maharashtra. Is BJP doing badly there?

Also, how about Assam?

Mullah Professor Mahdi e Dra said...

Swapanda

You stand out like a lotus amongst the weeds that constitute the pseudo liberal Indian Angrezi Media, for whom Majority bashing is not only a sure short cut to fame but also a sure short cut to monetary gains
May God bless you and please keep coming up with balanced articles
Jai Hind

ayush said...

Further erosion of the congress base nation wide, primarily to regional players is actually bad news ... If Congress suffers heavy losses and their Count in the lok sabah goes to around 100 there is a very strong possbility that Congress + BJP < 272 and that in my view is disaster.

I really feel BJP has not been able to gain as much as it should from the losses that the Congress can suffer. Almost nil absence in WB , TN, AP and Kerala is bound to Hurt, there was a great opportunity to build a base in these states in the last 11 years atleast which i beleive BJP has has lost out on for whatever reasons :(

Initiatives like the Friends Of BJP and some serious ground work can do wonders in 2014, The only concern is that these initiatives and momentum shouldn't go into Hibernation for the next 5 years.

This time round more and more pointers point to chaos ...

Arvind said...

"Swapan da, the ground reports and hearsay I got from my sources indicates that Joshi ji has lost from Varanasi."

Isn't he contesting from Allahabad?

A little OT but wanted to share this. I've a friend of mine who is from that place. He tells me that MMJ has a small decent house (at least 25 years old) and directly opposite his house there is a house of a "councilman" (Vidhan soudha guy not even Vidan Sabha) whose house is 10 times bigger than his house!! Just goes to show that u may have difference of views over his policies and opinions but u cant doubt his integrity or sincerity.

I've utmost respect for people like MMJ and ABV. Also love their beautiful shudh Hindi with words like "anushasan", "abhivrutti", "uttaradayitva" and "hastekshap". Will stop now, tears are welling up in my eyes when I contrast that with the arrogant jokers (who think they are the only smart ones and others are fools) India had for last 5 years.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Swapan,

Have uploaded an article, earlier written by Maloy Krishna Dhar on my blog.

It showcases why Indian politicians have to be corrupt. He has shown the Palm Party (Congress) nomination process - which is frankly astounding.

If you have not read it in original, its a must read.

Satya said...

Manmohan’s speech at Oxford University on 8 July 2005, while accepting an honorary degree: “At the height of our campaign for freedom from colonial rule, we did not entirely reject the British claim to good governance. We merely asserted our natural right to self-governance. India’s experience with Britain had its beneficial consequences.”

On May 22, 2005, in an emergency cabinet meeting past midnight, the Manmohan Singh regime recommended the dissolution of the Bihar assembly to the president. This was a blot on Indian democracy. The country’s Supreme Court passed strictures on the governor, Buta Singh, and the central government.

In 2006, health minister Anbumani Ramadoss sacked the most renowned heart surgeon in India and AIIMS head P Venugopal from the post of director. The politics of a self-centred and selfish caste-based leader with 4 MPs in Parliament was on the verge of destroying a great institution. The people of the country looked up to the prime minister to sack Anbumani from his cabinet and restore people’s faith in governance. But prime minister could not do it. He didn’t even open his mouth on the issue so that we knew whether Venugopal was sacked with his approval.

After the assembly election in Jharkhand, although the BJP was the single largest party and it had the support of 5 independents, the Sonia-appointee Jharkhand governor, Syed Sibte Razi, hurriedly swore in Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief Shibu Soren as chief minister. This in spite of the fact that Shibu had the support of just 33 MLAs, 8 short of the majority. But the PM just watched silently this murder of democracy. The Supreme Court had to intervene and tell the central government that the act of the governor was unconstitutional. Then the BJP was invited to form the government that it did. But we all know that Syed Sibte Razi was not removed. He is still the governor of Jharkhand.

Again, in 2008, as a reward for help save the UPA govt in Delhi, the PM asked Madhu Koda to resign so that Shibu Soren could be made chief minister. Soren forced Koda to resign, became the chief minister, but when Soren contested the election after that, he was rejected by the people, giving rise to a constitutional crisis.

The culprits of the 1984 anti-Sikh massacre, Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar, were given tickets to contest the Lok Sabha elections. The prime minister kept looking but could not change the decision of the party. It was only after journalist Jarnail Singh hurled a shoe at the home minister and a widespread protest against the Congress decision was witnessed that the candidature of Tytler and Kumar was withdrawn.

Mr Arjun Singh, the Union HRD minister, in his infinite wisdom decided that the best way to preserve Aligarh Muslim University’s minority status was by reserving 50% of the seats for Muslims. The decision was taken unilaterally, without consulting the prime minister. There is a general belief that the move was decided by Arjun Singh in a bid to woo Muslim votes for the Congress.

In September 2006 during a meeting with Musharraf, the Indian prime minister said that “Pakistan was a victim of terrorism”. By saying this, he accepted Pakistan’s incredible argument. And now, after the Mumbai attack, he says Pakistan is the epicentre of terrorism. Is it a sign of a PM who has a clear understanding of diplomacy? Certainly not.

In 2008 every six weeks, hundreds of people were killed in various towns of India, but the prime minister was not moved. He knew that home minister Shivraj Patil is not competent to handle the responsibilities of the ministry, but still he continued with him as it was Sonia Gandhi who had made Patil the home minister and only she could remove him. The country paid a heavy price for this act of the prime minister.

Recently, the Congress released a television ad. All prime ministers that the Congress party gave to the nation figured in it except Narasimha Rao. This happened although Rao was Manmohan Singh’s mentor in politics. It was Rao who got him into politics as his finance minister and Manmohan got some credibility. But since Sonia Gandhi doesn’t like Rao, she chose to not have him in the Congress ad. Manmohan Singh either didn’t ask her to include Rao in the ad or he is so weak that he knew that opening his mouth would be of no help. He is so ungrateful to his mentor! Such an ungrateful man does not deserve to head this great country.

All these examples show that the prime minister cannot take his own decisions. We have suffered him enough. We don’t want to suffer for another five years.

charuvak said...

Swapanda:

Will you ever tell us who the psephologist is ? :-)

Shivam Vij said...

There were no Assembly elections in UP in 2008, unless you were referring to the by-elections.

Anonymous said...

The psephologist is most likely GSNL Rao, who recently joined bjp

Know the verity said...

The psephologist is most likely GSNL Rao, who recently joined bjp

No, I think it was Yogendra Yadav.

Anonymous said...

Swapan da, I have a question for you. Why are you and other nationalists shy about making pointed charges of partisanship to the media anchors when you appear on their programs and are unfairly targeted? I urge you to not be defensive and to ridicule their credibility, just like they have been doing to all who do not agree with them.

Ankit

Know the verity said...

Swapan da what was the trend in this round ? Pls update, we r keenly waiting. I'm expecting some "surprise" upset for BJP in M.P. b'coz of the workers apathy and over confidence in cities.

aaccording said...

Standing Committee Chairman Sandeep Naik informed us that the root cause of the Bhise scam
Earlier Shivram Patil gave the reference of a message on the Bhise scam doing rounds that has put NMMC to embarrassment. Standing Committee Chairman Sandeep Naik informed us that the root cause of the Bhise scam was total system failure of the administration. The Chairman also informed that the members have given administration suggestions that will not just make NMMC’s encroachment drive transparent but will also check Bhise like scams. Even though the suggestions are welcome, almost all contractors in NMMC are proxy of contractors. Most of the relatives and kin of corporators take NMMC contracts. So it will not come as a surprise if the suggestions made by members are not implemented by the administration.

Anonymous said...

Go the ECO friendly immersion way this Ganesh Utsav with artificial ponds
MCGM and NMMC has created many artificial ponds across the city in an effort to curb the pollution that its caused to the water bodies post every Ganesh Chathurthi. But how many people are aware of the ways that they can follow to go all the way for an eco-friendly Ganpati celebration.
On the other hand, Standing Committee Chairman Sandeep Naik has also reiterated during meetings the need to promote artificial ponds. Artificial ponds have been made in both Mumbai and in Navi Mumbai at three places at Vashi, Kopri and Nerul. So if you are going to be a part of immersion rituals soon, here’s your chance of joining the mission of your bit for environment by celebrating Ganesh Chaturthi the eco-friendly way at artificial ponds.