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Friday, May 8, 2009

Fourth phase cliffhanger

The Congress has been waiting for some good news to emerge from the different phases of voting. I believe that the 4th phase has given the party its first piece of good news.

The question is: has it gained sufficiently to be the single largest party? As yet, it does not seem so.

Let us look at the trends (I am afraid I don't have enough data or credible reports from West Bengal as yet):

  • The quantitative reports from Delhi indicate a clean sweep by the Congress. Reports say the BJP appears to be putting up a fight in New Delhi and , against heavy odds, in Chandni Chowk and South Delhi. There are reports of heavy Sikh voting for Congress in West Delhi. However, there was also a very heavy middle class turnout and indifferent turnout in the Muslim quarters of Old Delhi (but heavy Muslim voting in East Delhi). This has given the BJP a small glimmer of hope. I feel the Assembly results may be replicated in the Lok Sabha and it will be 6-1 for the Congress. If these reports turn out to be true, the BJP should reflect on the wisdom of keeping its old Delhi leadership intact.
  • The BJP-RLD alliance has performed extremely well in western UP. Its vote share may be as much as 32 per cent which, in multi-cornered contests, could mean a total of between 8 and10 seats in the 4th phase.
  • Reports suggest that the Congress and BJP polled almost equally in Rajasthan. One possible outcome is 11 seats for both Congress and BJP, 1 for CPI(M) and 2 for others (Buta Singh and Kirori Lal Meena). The maximum forecast for Congress is 13 out of 25.
  • The BSP and Bhajan Lal's party took large chunks of votes in Haryana from the Congress. This has put a weak BJP-INLD alliance in the fight. Estimates are Congress 5 to 6, BJP-INLD 3 to 4, BSP 1 and maybe 1 for Bhajan Lal's party.
  • Four seats polled in Punjab in phase 4. A resurgent Congress may be able to pick up anything between 2 and 3. The Akali Dal may hold on to Bhatinda. The Dera Suchha Sauda has come out in full force for the Congress.
  • There were three Bihar seats polling. It is likely to be BJP-JD(U) 2, RJD 1. Lalu looks like getting through narrowly.
  • The Trinamool Congress workers were very aggressive in Midnapore but overall, the Left feels it is making a dent in Congress strongholds. I am informed that it will be touch and go for Pranab Mukherjee.

At this stage the BJP still looks like emerging the single largest party. One IB estimate received late last night says BJP 147, Congress 139. This may explain the stream of overtures from the Congress to the Left.

A pollster whose conclusions are contrarian (but often accurate) says that of the 457 seats polled to date, the projections are: BJP 154 and allies 42, Congress 123 and (pre-poll allies) 24. This makes it NDA 196, UPA 147.


Anonymous said...

In Delhi and Haryana, Congress had reached its peak in 2004 and so is the case of BJP in Rajasthan. In 2009, the gains for Congress in Rajasthan say from 4 to 10, are likely to be cancelled out in Delhi and Haryana. My hunch is Congress will get maximun 4 seats in Delhi and 4 seats in Haryana resulting in a net loss of 7 seats for the Party. Similarly BJP is bound to come down from 21 to maximum 11-12 in Rajasthan. But, the good news for the BJP is their gains in UP will be substantial. Eventually, whichever Party has the psychological edge on May 16th will be better placed to form the Govt.

Mahesh Prabhu said...

Long live that pollster arithmetic to whom you are referring.

Rajasthan and Delhi might tilt to BJP.This is my assumption.

Lets wait and watch.

Murali said...

oh oh hang on, 13 for congress in rajasthan swapan da i think you are playing it too conservative here, no way congress is getting into double digits in rajasthan. delhi also 6-1 in favor congress sounds too conservative despite good candidate selection by BJP.

Anonymous said...

This is the possible seat tally for BJP and Congress from the bigger states:

U.P- 18 (BJP) 10 (Congress)
Bihar- 10 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Maharashtra- 14 (BJP) 11( Congress)
Gujarat- 18 (BJP) 8 (Congress)
Karnataka- 19 (BJP) 6 (Congress)
A.P- 1 (BJP) 15 (Congress)
Orissa- 5 (BJP) 7 (Congress)
Kerala- 0 (BJP) 11 (Congress)
T.N- 1 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Chh'garh- 9 (BJP) 2 (Congress)
Jh'khand- 7 (BJP) 3 (Congress)
Assam- 5 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Raj'stan- 12 (BJP) 11 (Congress)
Punjab- 2 (BJP) 7 (Congress)
Himachal- 3 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Ut'khand- 3 (BJP) 2 (Congress)
M.P- 22 (BJP) 7 (Congress)
W.B- 1 (BJP) 5 (Congress)
J&K- 1 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Haryana- 2 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Other States and UTs- 5 (BJP) 9 (Congress)

ALL INDIA----- 158 (BJP) 129 (Congress)

Anonymous said...

Interesting that your IB sources say BJP 147 INC 139. My IB sources say BJP 125 INC 175. Quite close to the NDTV projection using exit polls from the first three phases.

So whose IB is better?

Anonymous said...

Reports suggest Rajnath Singh in a stiff fight in Ghaziabad. SP Goel is braving a tough front with considerable support from urban Ghaziabad. BSP may cut some Brahmin vote of the BJP. Do you think Rajnath Singh will sail through?

Oldtimer said...

Why is Delhi, largely an urban region, a Congress bastion? Because as a matter of rule the higher the level of literacy the greater the likelihood that the vote is against Congress.

Anonymous said...

Nice post Swapan (as always)!

BTW, is the IB estimate after phase 4 or phase 5? The contrarian pollster views seem pretty close to GVLNR's estimate, I believe?
What is your take on phase 5 and hence BJP's chances of staking claim? Amma, Didi, Maya and Naidu - Which way will they swing?

Anonymous said...

Swapan Da,

Going by the conclusions of the pollster ( BJP 154 so far ), It looks like BJP will be touching 165 by the end of 5th Phase and Allies touching 47-48.

The overall estimate than would be 212-215 for NDA.

This looks more closer to ground reality.

The million dollar question is how to get remaing 55-60 to form the govt.

Singha said...


I repeat my earlier question. while providing additional inputs, pls provide your take on this.

Why has BJP not taken ruling roots in Rajasthan despite what was considered decent governance by Vasu.

Was Infighting the main reason? Were there any disabling internal forces?

Was it the Gujjar/Meena divide induced by Congress I?

Or is it the muslim vote bank politics against BJP/change in demographics.

Request you to elaborate a bit more on the above.

A Doosra Perspective said...

Congress getting 4 seats in TN, no way guys. It is going to face a rout.Manishankar Aiyar and Chidambaram are certain to lose. Candidates selection is also pretty bad. DMK cadres are not working for them.They will lose all the 16 seats.

Anonymous said...

Please do not count cong in TN 5. Its struggling to open account. Even PC is struggling.

Oldtimer said...

To the Anonymous who wrote:

"Interesting that your IB sources say BJP 147 INC 139. My IB sources say BJP 125 INC 175. Quite close to the NDTV projection using exit polls from the first three phases.

So whose IB is better?"

This is not a pissing contest about whose IB is better. Here's what I suggest. Put up your IB-supplied information on your blog. In due course if you gain credibility you may also acquire readers. Your IB should stand you in good stead in this endeavor.

Anonymous said...

Please see to that BJP focusses on this in the next phase.
India not keen on black money: Swiss govt

The Swiss Justice Department on Friday said that the Government of India was dragging its feet on the black money issue.

In a Headlines Today exclusive, the department also said the Indian government had submitted forged documents to Swiss authorities in the $ 8-billion Hassan Ali money laundering case in January 2007. Stud farm owner Hassan Ali had illegally transferred $ 6 billion to UBS accounts and came under the Enforcement Directorate's radar.

Swiss government spokesman Folco Galli told Headlines Today that the Indian government was informed about the fake documents by Swiss authorities in January 2007 itself. Further, the Swiss claimed to have submitted certain queries to the Indian government in April 2007 but New Delhi has not bothered to file a reply even 24 months later.

Since the black money issue became a major election plank for the Lok Sabha polls, the Centre claimed in the Supreme Court that it has been doing what it can to bring back the black money stashed in Swiss banks. The Centre's affidavit in the SC however fails to mention that the Swiss have questioned the authenticity of the documents.

In fact, the Swiss spokesman's answer seems to suggest there has been little or no action from the government's side for the last two years in seriously pursuing the probe against Hassan Ali Khan.

The last sentence in the response of the Swiss is telling. Galli says, "India makes only few requests per year to Switzerland for legal aid in tracking down black money."

Given the black economy is considered much bigger than the Indian economy, the UPA government has a lot to answer for.

The Centre has been claiming that Swiss domestic laws don't allow them to access their bank accounts.

Anonymous said...

Swapan Da,

But this site politics party gives a different picture for 4th phase.

Anonymous said...

60 seats are not big deal---

Mamta will get 15 seats
Jaya will get 20-25 seats
Navin patnaik 10 seats
TRS+TDP 25 seats
If 5-7 seats short,, NE parties and independents will be managed.

And we have NDA government.

Arvind said...

Whose IB sources are better? IB consists of sycophants who have traditionally pleased their masters in the ruling party by giving them good tidings. When they go wrong, they blame it on rigging. I wouldn't take them seriously.

Delhi was supposed to be a Congress stronghold and Congress was supposed to have the edge in Rajasthan and Haryana. BJP wasn't supposed to win more than 4-5 in Punjab either.

Check out for an interesting news item. The headline doesn't match the contents except where it says UPA will get 195. The rest of the news item is bad news for Congress. It even says they will do badly in Maharashtra. I wonder how they arrived at the 195 figure.

Return_of_Chanakya said...

Here is my take for BJP (162) and Congress *138) :

U.P- 20 (BJP) 10 (Congress)
Bihar- 10 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Maharashtra- 14 (BJP) 11( Congress)
Gujarat- 18 (BJP) 8 (Congress)
Karnataka- 19 (BJP) 6 (Congress)
A.P- 1 (BJP) 20 (Congress)
Orissa- 4 (BJP) 10 (Congress)
Kerala- 0 (BJP) 12 (Congress)
T.N- 1 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Chh'garh- 9 (BJP) 2 (Congress)
Jh'khand- 8 (BJP) 2 (Congress)
Assam- 5 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Raj'stan- 13 (BJP) 10 (Congress)
Punjab- 2 (BJP) 7 (Congress)
Himachal- 3 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Ut'khand- 3 (BJP) 2 (Congress)
M.P- 22 (BJP) 7 (Congress)
W.B- 2 (BJP) 6 (Congress)
J&K- 1 (BJP) 1 (Congress)
Haryana- 2 (BJP) 4 (Congress)
Other States and UTs- 5 (BJP) 10 (Congress)

ALL INDIA----- 158 (BJP) 129 (Congress)

neo_reloaded said...

swapan da could you pls shed some light on the effect in terms of seats turnout figures might have??
btw the more the election progresses the more your analysis seems to be differing from the MSM..
btw do you honestly think it is possible to even vaguely predict election outcomes with sample sizes of a few hundred voters in each constituency when they probably dont even cover all constituencies???

ramana said...

Swapan da:

Thanks again for the info and insightful analysis. I really appreciate it.

ramana said...

IB projections. Recall in 2004, the IB projected NDA victory, we know how that turned out !

Ajay2 said...

Overall seems to be good news for the NDA. The Congress needed to absolutely sweep Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana to have a chance of forming the next government. If they are only going to hit half in Rajasthan and Haryana, they are on the back foot.

A surprising performance in Punjab - I thought the NDA govt there was popular? Any particular reason the Congress is resurgent? And I thought given the shoe throwing incident due to Sikh riots, Sikh sentiment in Punjab and Delhi would be against Congress?

Disappointing performance by the BJP in Delhi. And given that all the english media is based in Delhi, they look at it as whoever wins Delhi wins India. The BJP should seriously look to new leadership in Delhi with an eye to the 2013 assembly elections and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It will be immensely embarrassing to the BJP if the Congress wins 4 terms in Delhi, though this is probably Sheila Dikshit's last term, she will be replaced by some younger leader like Ajay Maken by the Congress.

Excellent news from UP. I heard reports that the vote transferring between BJP and RLD was not too good in western UP. But if they can chalk up a 30% vote share, we can sweep almost all seats here.

All focus has shifted to alliance politics now, what the media likes to call the 6th phase of elections 2009. Swapanda, when can we expect a post on this?

I for one do not share the optimism of some others that if the NDA puts up 210 on its own, the TMC,AIADMK,TDP,BJD,TRS,PMK,MDMK will join us without creating any problems. TN could be the game changer. If the mega switch happens after the elections (Cong dumps DMK and goes with AIADMK,PMK,MDMK), there is no hope of an NDA government. This would make sense for the AIADMK too since the DMK govt in TN would fall and Jaya will become CM.

The TMC, BJD, TDP are all looking after muslim votebanks and secularism, so them coming over could be tough, unless the Orissa and Andhra assemblies are hung.

And I am not at all hopeful of the BSP joining us after the election, nor am I looking forward to it. Mayawati could insist on the PM's chair, which we would have to disagree to. And she will wreck havoc if we give the deputy PM post too. And once again we will lose our base in UP like the last time. Same if we ally in TN and AP and Orissa with AIADMK and TDP and BJD.

So on the whole, good news for the NDA, but a hung parliament is bad news for everyone, especially those hoping to form the government.

Swapan Dasgupta said...

I think it is necessary to reiterate that the estimates are made on the strength of talking to pollsters (those who conduct exit polls), the media and some select officials. They are only indicative and can often go horribly wrong. It would be wrong to make political calculations only on the strength of these estimates.

The IB figures, as some of you have correctly pointed out, can vary wildly. As far as I am aware, there is no official IB estimate provided to ministers. The figures, when they are supplied, are done informally and based on complete deniability. Also, different sections of the intelligence apparatus have their own estimates. The IB is not equipped to handle poll statistics. Their estimates are based on impressions gathered in police stations. In a huge Lok Sabha constituency these can go awry.

Why is the NDA doing badly in Punjab? I think the anticipated transition from Prakash Singh Badal to his son Sukhbir is not being well received. Sukhbir has a serious image problem.

The question about Rajasthan needs more profound analysis. I am not sure I am in a position to give the best answer.

venkatesh said...


Really appreciate your taking the time to not only write the blog but also coomunicate with the members. it is very stimulating to discuss with an unbiased journalist who is also honest enough to confess his limitiations. Every time I see you on TV, my respect for you increases and great that you dont blindly support the BJP and are not afraid to criticize them.

My own feeling is that there is going to be no close contest between congress and the BJP. My instinct is that the BJP will have at least a 50 seat lead over the congress. plus with the juvenile prince who has taken over the congress, will only accelerate the destruction of the congress.

Anonymous said...

does it look like a sweep against upa in tn reports suggest it will be difficult to win more than 1-2 seats

venkatesh said...

TN will be a complete disaster for congress as well as DMK. The bloody arrogant jerks Chiddu and Mani are gonna lose their elections

MVR said...

Hi Swapan Da...I have found your blog after phase 2 and since then I log into this page atleast once in a day. Please answer my question...can you please tell me how is it possible that BJP sweeps(165/272) 2007 Delhi Municipal Elections and then does miserably in Assembly and LS elections?? Is it plainly down to leadership in Delhi?? Isn't the BJP leadership aware of it?? It can for sure get good leaders in Delhi, can't it??

Next, how is it that your analysis a week back says 165 and now it says around 150??weren't these loses expected?? Is there anything unusual about phase 4?? Atleast I don't see :)

Also, Please, if you can, let BJP leadership know that BJP Govt. in Karnataka needs a serious image makeover to have any hopes of returning to power in next assembly elections.Otherwise, it will lose youth support in B'lore..which were its core supporters in B'lore and other major cities.

Thank You.

Anonymous said...


It is 154 out of 4 phases. If true, then 165 is very likely : 4 more in UP fifth phase, 3 in Uttarakhand, 3 in Himachal, 1-2 in Punjab.

Anonymous said...

Swapan da,
Please prepare yourself for Twists and spins in the studios on 16th May. On a likely BJP win, they will attack you more out of frustration or energetically mock you on a poor BJP wicket. Either case you will be in the receiving end, as always ;)

Anonymous said...

Swapan Da
Thanks for sharing the info. It is much more useful than all the propoganda we hear as "News" in English media. I have one observation about TN though. We can't afford to have either DMK or ADMK alliance sweep the state. People are assuming Jaya would go with NDA without a problem. I think her first preference would be CON party. Bcoz they can make her the CM. So if she sweeps all the seats CON party will immediately withdraw support to Karuna and add the 40 seats to their kitty. Then it would be impossible for NDA to form the Government. The best possible outcome for the NDA is is a 50-50 for ADMK and DMK alliance. That way CONG won't dump Karuna and Jaya would be forced to choose NDA. Even if CON party dumps Karuna then NDA will get the support of DMK. So it is a win win for NDA.
Ideally I am hoping this is the seat spilit in TN.

DMK+(DMK - 12 CON -7 VCK-1)
ADMK+(ADMK- 12 PMK- 4 MDMK -2 LEFT - 2)

In this scenario PMK-MDMK-VCK can be bought off for a right price by the NDA(PMK all they need is the health ministry for Anbumani Ramadoss,Vaiko wants a cabinet post,VCK same).
So then DMK and ADMK would be forced to choose the opposite sides. So I am hoping for this outcome. What fo you think Mr.Gupta


Anonymous said...

Hello Swapanda, I have an unasked for PR advice for the BJP during alliance formation.

Congress and Communists are going to open the secular umbrella in the aftermath of elections to scare parties into supporting them. I think one pragmatic way to counter that is the following. BJP sympathisers should float the argument that one need not lose one's secular credentials just because of aligning with the BJP. Look at Naidu, look at DeveGowda, look at Ajit Singh, look at Patnaik and look at Nitish. They are aligned previously with the BJP or have aligned with BJP previously but they are still considered secular. After all, the test will be based on the agenda for governance that the BJP presents and they agree upon. If the agenda does not have contentious issues then how is it communal?

I know it is difficult for someone with the conviction that BJP's vision is not extermist to make this point. But, I think this is a PR spin that would make the task of alliance making easier and would blunt some of the secular assault.

I hope you will think about it.

Rajat Dutta said...

Swapanda, I came to know that you and your blog exists, right about now.
I feel so fortunate, because the national media is 'pseudo', right from TOI to India today to Frontline to Outlook.

How about starting a online newspaper with low costs, with correspondents sharing the generated ad revenue......if anyone can do this, you surely can Swapanda.Pls think about it.

Vinoo Ganesan said...

This is really a nice blog and I hope Swapan continues to write even after the elections.

As for the elections, I think NDA will form the govt. They might need Jaya's help.

Anonymous said...

suddenly there is shift in the seats when compared with the MSM and the bloggers.

Anonymous said...

Veerappa Moily has been removed as media head of Congress for his remarks against Nitish Kumar. KKKangress is trying hard to get Nitis. Its getting really interesting.

Anonymous said...

There are 1 million illegal pakistani muslims in Rajasthan
The influx was detected as early as the 1961 census
However, despite the 1 million Pakistani muslims, the total muslim % is just 8%
Also, unlike Bengal and Assam, culturally, the Rajasthan Hindus are dont like muslim vote banking

In Rajasthan, Vasundara alienated much of the Sangh Parivar
Add to it, the Gujjar Meena split started by congress

What congress is doing in Rajasthan is hindu caste vote banking

To win votes, one needs both development and caste vote banking


Manjunath said...

I hope your prediction for Delhi come false.
After Delhi assembly victory congress began to believe in its own myth that Terrorism card of BJP did not work.
Why did not BJP send its heavy hitter Modi to Delhi? Was he prevented by Rajnath? Why Advani did not overule Rajnath?
Why BJP did not focus on national issues in Delhi and Rajasthan campaign?
Why it did not Arun Jaitley to fight from Delhi?
Hope you will have some answers.
I was the guy who did an estimate of 180 seats for BJP after 3 phases. Can you tell me where I overestimated or Underestimated. Your sources must be most reliable.

Anonymous said...

Dear Swapan, I am a regular reader of your columns. I am pleased to know that you have started to blog also. I will be making daily visits to this site! I always wanted to give you my appreciation of your writing. But sending a letter to the editor on the subject of your column is pointless because it would never have seen the light of the day. Indeed given the overwhelming bias in the English media I wonder often why your column still appears! You are one of India's finest columnists. You do not camouflage your political sympathies but you also do not let those sympathies come in the way of objective analysis. Commentators with courage of conviction but at the same time the integrity to not let their preferences cloud their judgement are a rare find these days. Unadulterated sources of information also have become extinct. News without spin is hard to get, especially where it involves the Right. Thank you and keep up the good work!

sharath said...

Hello Sir,

I came across this news article:

I am not sure whether this article is violation of Election commissions rule on a ban on exit polls. Nonetheless, I found the claims made in this article interesting.

Manoj said...

In my view, how ever tantalizingly close the NDA reaches to the power including its future allies as well, they should not have any truck with Mayawati. This would be disaster for them in short term and long term. A government based on promise of cleaning up the system, getting black money from abroad, if they start with somebody like Mayawati on board, the whole good will evaporates in a jiffy and I think this future NDA government would not even have a customary honeymoon period. In long run, Mayawati will wipe them off from UP, and dent them seriously in MP, Rajasthan, HP Punjab etc. etc. By taking Mayawati's support, BJP stands to only loose everything, and Mayawati who is at the peak of her political career otherwise, will get a fresh dose of life.
BJP is not a short term project to get a shot at power in centre by hook or by crook. BJP carries the burden of hopes of millions in this country, for whom, this party is the only bright spot in the otherwise completely gloomy scenario.

Anonymous said...

Ashwini Kumar removed as KKKangress spokesperson for his comments against TDP. Going at this rate it looks like congress might require all parties except BJP to form the govt :-)

reason said...

Swapan Sir and other followers of the blog - I think BJP needs to take its Bihar MLAs on a immediate tour to a far-away BJP state - Karnataka. And keep the Bihar MLAs in isolation there until things stabilize. Even with this,Nitish could cross over and risk the government or 356 route. But atleast the BJP should do this much, to make it that much more difficult for them.

Oldtimer said...

I find Moily's sacking funny! He got ousted for echoing the sentiments of his master! In Tudor England, the royal palace had this job called Whipping Boy. Whenever the teachers needed to award retribution to the prince for his academic misdemeanors, they used to beat the stuffing out of the whipping boy. This was because demeaning corporal punishment could not be visited upon the divine derriere of the prince. Who says the Congress doesn't respect tradition?

Rider on the Storm said...

Well this seems like a good scenario for the BJP. Unfortunately the NDA's push to get to the 220s-230s are damaged by two big ticket states--Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. In the 2004 elections it's these two states that caused the NDA upset and mainly due to Anti-Incumbency and over confidence in AP and a general Pro-DMK shift in Tamil Nadu. The Congress victory in these two states was projected as an overall Congress Victory and the rest as they say is history. 5 years later, the scene hasnt changed. The BJP has no chance in more than a couple of seats put together in both the states and no credible allies to deal with as well. The trouble is the Congress allies who will lose badly this time, Lalu, Mulayam , Paswan and the DMK are easily exchangable. With the 'third' front getting 120-140 MPs, more than 3/4ths of them will go with the Congress barring a few such as BJD and TDP, who will NOT go with the BJP post election. Thats the trouble. Winning 196, they may have to still sit in the opposition.

sarathy.amudhan said...

The Hindu Newspaper in its Sunday edition dated 03-May-2009 has made a study of the preamble of the Manifesto of the Bharathiya Janata Party
The Hindu’s team of eminent historians have analyzed the claims made in the preamble and have negated each of them as either false or as exaggerations.
A Tamil forum for discussion of culture, society, science, history etc. has studied the factual basis of the evaluation of the historians as presented by The Hindu and also the veracity of the claims of Dr. Joshi. They have presented Dr. Joshi’s claims, ‘The Hindu’s response to the claims and the facts as discovered by the forum.
The presentation is a fitting response to the Hindu report and a must read for all right thinking proud Indians. I am providing the link to this excellent piece of work done by the forum. Hats off. Please pass it on to all your friends and colleagues and give it the maximum publicity.

Rooney said...

Why do you guys think Jayalalita will go with NDA? If she sides with Congress, she can get them to withdraw support to the DMK govt in the state and trigger MK's exit.

Ashish said...

Mr Dasgupta!! What have you to say about this news story?

Your IB reports said clearly a BJP victory with about 150 seats... this is very worrisome. This IB report predicts 160-180 for the Congress.

In your comments you said that IB reports are often unreliable. But no one in their rite minds can predict the Congress reaching 180. A best case scenario for the Congress seems like 160.

Ofcourse, I wouldn't put it past rediff to put up a false story like this, but it makes me wonder whether your estimates could be wrong.

Should we really be taking estimates from people who couldn't predict 68 terrorist attacks in the last 5 years, but claim to predict an election, which is much tougher? Ofcourse, they got their numbers horribly wrong in 2004...

Reading all your analysis, I was confident that the NDA was well poised, now am a little more jittery...

Anonymous said...

We can wait untill 16th may.. let the discussions continues. But Im wondering one thing why this 99% net blockS supports BJP.?i Could find very few people support congress.

Anonymous said...

Like someone in this forum has noted, IF TN is swept by either DMK or AIADMK then that group will be gobbled up completely by the UPA... that will be the worst thing to happen to NDA...

But thanx to Vijaykanth I think it should be the 25-15 split up in TN... that will help NDA...

So in all states where NDA does not have a stake the ideal break up is a 50-50 between the players in that state....

Pradyot said...

Depending on who you listen to, the pro-BJP guys seem to be giving themselves around 160 seats and Congress 130. The Congress Wallah's have the numbers reversed.
As always , the truth probably somewhere in between.
There are a few certainties though.
1.TDP cannot fight the Congress at the state level and support it at the centre. Such political acrobatics are best left to the Left.
2.If the Left Front has anything to do with government formation , Mamta Banerjee cannot be an ally.
3.BJD is also unlikely to support a congress led government.
4. BJP will find it extremely hard to pool in the numbers.
So from all this I conclude that the 2 very real possibilities that nobody has taken seriously so far is a ragtag third front government supported by the Congress OR a government led by Nitish Kumar backed from the outside by the BJP, might be a lot more palatable to quite a few of the regional parties.