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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Lull before the count

On the surface, it was just another summer day in Delhi. The ancien regime strutted about the city in the firm belief that everything was hunky dory. A new Finance Secretary was appointed by the government; the Chief Election Commissioner unveiled a film at The Oberoi produced by the EC and made by a lady whose sister is part of Sonia Gandhi's inner circle; and Minority Commission member Dileep Padgaonkar made a seamless switch from being a dedicated panelist on Times Now to becoming a pundit on CNN-IBN. To the beautiful people, it was just a question of waiting till Saturday afternoon for the Congress to reassume the reins of power.

"Was the nuclear deal discussed during the campaign?" a businessman asked me at lunch. I was left speechless. Clearly, I didn't belong to the world inhabited by the beautiful people.

But underneath the placid surface there were strong undercurrents. Early this evening I received a call from one of the top analysts of a big merchant bank. He was trying to make sense of today's staggering 4 per cent jump in the Sensex. It seems that the rally was triggered by a rumour that the NDA was going to form the government. One evening paper in Mumbai even published a so-called IB assessment that the BJP-Sena would win 28 of the 40 seats in Maharashtra. "Is this likely?" he asked me.

Wait for Saturday, I advised him. In case he was impatient, I told him to check tomorrow's exit poll results. I understand there are two planned and I understand that two of these are going to show the Congress emerging as the largest party quite comfortably. The editor of an English-language daily has told his staff that he expects the Congress tally at 170.

If the Congress reaches 170, Manmohan may as well get ready to be sworn in next week. But how come this optimism isn't shared by the so-called High Command? H.R. Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) tried to cover his face while entering 10 Janpath for a private audience with the Empress. On TV, Jayanthi Natarajan argued that the cameras had no right to be so intrusive.

The BJP meanwhile is appearing a bit too cocky and over-confident. As part of his PR, Advani has produced a volume of the interviews he gave during the campaign. Some silly BJP "sources" have also spread wild stories about a "crack team" conducting negotiations for a "greater NDA". It's all very dubious.

The rally in Ludhiana, the leader of a NDA party told me on Monday, was good "but the audience was sullen". Was it a sign of the mood in Punjab?

Meanwhile, Amar Singh is angry with the Congress over its complicity in the denigration of Jayapradha by Azam Khan in Rampur. Some disgusting morphed pictures of the Telugu film star is being circulated in Rampur--Amar Singh claims that this misdeed has the full backing of the Congress. I went to the Pioneer office and asked if any of the women's groups have come out against this denigration of a woman. None, I was told. Why hasn't the TV channels asked Begum Noor Bano of the Congress to explain? Is it because the Congress owes no explanations?

In the lane opposite the Pioneer offices, A.B. Bardhan of the CPI was delighting everyone with his acerbic wit. He railed against the monopoly press--rhetoric we haven't heard in a long time.

It was just another hot day in Delhi. The predicted storm is four days away.

Postscript: Pieces of revealing trivia that came my way this morning:

  • The news about Kumaraswamy meeting Sonia Gandhi was leaked to the media by the Congress itself. A top aide of the Congress president personally contacted many TV channels with the prior information that left the JD(S) embarrassed.
  • Some Congress people are of the belief that the CPI(M) will not only vote out the Karat line on May 18 but that Karat will be removed as general secretary of the party.

45 comments:

Ajay said...

One thing I never understand is why BJP guys are always over-confident. Except for Jaitely, it seems difficult for everybody to in the party to be level headed

But I sincerely hope BJP's optimism is well founded, and that voters of this country have voted sensibly this time.

India certainly deserves better,

Anonymous said...

I too believe the BJP is appearing over confident at the moment. The same happened before the Delhi assembly polls results last year and BJP lost quite badly there. I hope its not an ominous sign.

OLdtimer said...

I look forward to your own exit poll, though I have no reason to suspect that you have been fudging the numbers. :-)

Murali said...

http://www.mid-day.com/news/2009/may/120509-Milind-Deora-Gurudas-Kamat-Sanjay-Nirupam-Intelligence-report-BJP-Sena-Congress.htm

swapan da, you are referring to that post. That is the one that gives 28 for NDA in maha. But see the article and add the numbers for urself, it is NDA 30, UPA 14, MNS 1 and IND=3.

mid-day guys dont even know addition.

Anonymous said...

Well I can't wait for the 16 when the beautiful faces will be seething in rage. It is going to be fun filled 16th where we can see the eminent panelists self combust in Live TV.

Anonymous said...

>> The editor of an English-language daily has told his staff that he expects the Congress tally at 170.

I pretty much know this is the fondly-called toilet paper. I heard this scoop from a low level financial products salesman last week so it must have been in the rounds even longer. But that did not trigger any big market move until today. And today's move is picked up by reuters as 'NDA-rumour'.

To hit 170, they need to retain the super-strong performances from 2004 in AP/TN/Gujarat/delhi, upset BJP in atleast two of the bjp states, and hit 20 in UP.

EVMs? do you think it is doable?

Anonymous said...

>> H.R. Kumaraswamy

H.D.Kumaraswamy.

ayush said...

Pink chaddis are reserved only for "communal" forces who are against under aged women boozing around in pubs.

There are NO pink chaddis for denigrating women the way its been done in Rampur. These are "secular" people and have all the right to denigrate women and distribute Porn.

I am not an expert on Law but as far as rational logic goes i believe this should have been a legal offence where all the padm shrees should have been shouting hoarse to get the offenders behind bars .... but alas Azam Khan is not in BJP ... what a shame ...

Hinduboy said...

On the day May 7 polls, Times of India launched a front page propaganda Expert Poll which put UPA ahead of NDA which is a mathematical impossibility. The motive was clearly to demoralize the more cynical BJP voters and lure them into spending the day at home.

If these pollsters get their act wrong, they should also face the music for misleading the nation....For 6 months, these 'beautiful' people have been shouting hoarse on the Congress way ahead of BJP

Varun said...

Swapan da,

Right now its 2:51 am and i cant stop smiling after reading your post. :)

Meek shall inherit the earth said...

The stock market need not be taken as a barometer of political fortunes. Markets tend to get disconnected from reality, for short periods of time.
The Exit Polls lack credibility, thanks to the biased attitudes of the channels conducting these polls. CNN-IBN seems to have restored some semblance of fairness.
The BJP itself seems to be run by two groups of people: those who win elections and keep quite, and, second, those who have occupied different offices in the BJP with no popular backing. Check up the list of memebers in numerous committees that BJP forms (not political, but economic and social) - you will note that the list is filled with Delhi residents (small time - mohalla leaders). Mainly because the Delhiites can easily pamper the decision makers.
A congress govt seems inevitable, but can it be formed without the Left?

parasuram81 said...

I think congress people know something which we dont..I strongly suspect some foulplay somewhere,is it the Navin Chwala effect?

"Congress leaders, exuding confidence that the party would take the lead in forming the next government even before the Lok Sabha results are out, are already discussing the composition of the next Cabinet.
Several of the “old guard”, including Mr Arjun Singh, Sis Ram Ola and Mr Mahavir Prasad, are expected to be dumped, insiders have indicated, but some others, such as Mr Shivraj Patil and Ms Meira Kumar, might be accommodated.
With AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi having led the electoral battle from the front, some younger faces too are likely to feature in the new Cabinet. It is too soon to tell if the Congress will be able to retain major portfolios like home, finance, defence, external affairs and human resources development, or whether it will have to surrender any of these in case it has to rope in a larger number of coalition partners.
The mood in the Congress is upbeat on it emerging as the largest single party and thus being invited by the President, Ms Pratibha Patil, to form the government. Party activists are keen to see new faces in the government. Several young and middle-aged leaders from key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are understood to be in the reckoning for ministerships.
One key insider said: “Numbers are not important... whether we get 160 or 180 seats... The most important thing in this battle is L.K. Advani’s failure to win friends before and after the elections. If the TRS joins the NDA, then the Praja Rajyam can come to us in Andhra.”

Source:deccanchroncile.com

Anonymous said...

Sirji,
Why are you surprised to see "BJP a bit too cocky and over-confident." These idiots forever will be idiots - do they ever learn anything - and I will not be surprised if Sonia gets to nominate a new PM again! What a disaster! If BJP can not win in this situation, they should kiss good-bye to politics and close BJP so some one else can occupy the space and do something useful / good for Bharat Mata! - Gopi

zoomindianmedia said...

Today there will be exit polls. Ignore the hyperbole in the media. Watch out just for trends.

Trends in UP, Rajasthan, Orissa, MP will provide indications of extent of BJP’s lead over congress. Dont believe the numbers from corrupt media. Dr. Yogendra Yadav, Dr. Prannoy Roy are well known for doctoring facts. Mahesh Rangarajan will be comparatively more honest.

parasuram81 said...

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Highly placed sources in the party say Congress President Sonia Gandhi [Images] will request big business's help to win friends and install a Congress-led government at the Centre.

Congress sources say businessmen who enjoy a good relationship with Congress leaders and bureaucrats close to the party will be requested to tap their contacts in various political parties and establish a basis for a dialogue by which an understanding can be reached in the post results scenario.

The two men orchestrating this Sonia initiative, the sources claim, are a high profile minister, who is currently contesting a tough re-election, and an influential economist-bureaucrat, both of whom have an impressive list of businessmen contacts.

Sources claim the list of likely businessmen may include Reliance Industries [Get Quote] Chairman Mukesh Ambani [Images], Infosys [Get Quote] Chairman N R Narayana Murthy [Images], HCL [Get Quote] Chairman Shiv Nadar, Tata Sons Chairman Ratan Tata [Images], among others. It is unclear and uncertain if any of these businessmen will collaborate with the Congress in achieving its political ambitions.

Congress sources say once such groundwork is done, the political operators will take over. The level of confidence at 10 Janpath, Sonia Gandhi's home and the hub of the Congress party, the sources add, is "very high." Irrespective of whether the Congress emerges as the single largest party or not, every effort will be made to cobble together the numbers and ensure that Dr Manmohan Singh [Images] remains India's prime minister.Swapanda please alert BJP to this fact oz congress looks like its trying to install MMS at any cost even if they wouldnt be SLP.I feel,like you said BJP is innocent and rigid while striking deals.Hope they find a counter-move.

Anonymous said...

EVMs? do you think it is doable?This election is supposed to have used "upgraded" EVMs and it is possible that the code for these new machines has been tampered with during the manufacturing process.

I don't understand why BJP has allowed something susceptible to foul play to stay in use. The EVMs should have been retired until the EC published the code and the manufacturing process incorporated random testing in the presence of political parties.

Puneet Goel said...

As far as the 7 delhi seats are concerned, I suspect what happened in the Assembly elections could be repeated.

After Sri Kolhi took over, he made various representations to the EC regarding 15 lac bogus voters on the list. Were the lists pruned of these bogus voters before the Lok Sabha elections?

My USMLE battle said...

Latest news from Tamil Nadu.....the great pseudo king from 'The Hindu'...Mr. Ram says that AIDMK has a 10% swing supporting it, meaning Jaya will sweep 39 seats in TN, but the Pondicherry seat could be lost.....

Anonymous said...

Why the breathless speculation of UPA manipulation and evildoing? Is it beyond the realm of possibility that this is a fair election in which either the BJP or INC win on their own steam?

Too much sound and fury signifying nothing. Don't worry, have curry, wait for Saturday. Frankly none of the alternatives at this point is particularly bad - exception being the Third Front that would probably be unstable.

Personally am rooting for MMS, but it's not like I will go into a depression or start hyperventilating if LKA becomes PM. Have some faith in our country.

Anonymous said...

anonymous,like you i am worried about thi nefarious congress stooge chawla. where did you get evm info about.NO media has published this.Even the cec an insider complained about him to prez,never before has such athing happened in any democratic country in the world and in india.

Anonymous said...

Wonder why so many soothesayers have jumped out... lets not jump the gun... the congress could be confident from many other possible reasons...

I seriosly hope that all this talk of rigging EVM's is false... that would be THE END of our democracy ....

Also we cannot really trust any trend that has been coming out so far... each trend has its own agenda... the final results could be very different from all predictions...

For the NDA to come back to power the following are a must
1. Improvements in UP, Bihar, MH, Jharkand... holding onto MP, Kar, GUJ...
2. BJD & TDP having to depend on BJP support to form their respective state governments...
3. No SWEEP for AMMA in TN... a 25-15 split in TN is best for NDA as thats the only way to keep Congress with DMK... and make AMMA free to come with NDA ... here again PMK and MDMK can go anywhere... besides there is a few left seats in Amma's 25 which wont go to NDA at any cost

Hoping for a few wild card victories for BJP in TN, AP and maybe (just maybe) Kerala

cant wait for 16th

Mahesh Prabhu said...

Swapanda,

Its true that Congress is playing some sort of game to induce over confidence in BJP and enemy camp.

All the leaders in Congress are just saying boldly that it will form the next govt under the leadership of MMS(i am sure it will be Sonia+Rahul).

Only when NDA camp is really confident, the media is saying NDA is overconfident again.

Congress overconfidence is not seen by the likes of Barka,sagarika. If congress says something the so called good people take it to brains, when BJP heavyweight people say something it understood to be overconfident.

I am BJP supporter ,but this time i am not overconfident.BJP deserves to be in the center.
People of likes of Kapil Sibal will send forge documents to Swiss bank and get nothing. We need likes of Arun Shourie to be in the Govt to get that money back.

Lots and lots of games will happen, but i am preety sure BJP will sail through this and lead the country ...

I am praying ,lets wait and see May 16th 2009.

neelakantan said...

Nice description. Lets hope that the lazy atmosphere is sent into some supercharged activity over the next few days resulting in the change that is "in the air". If not, its a pathetic 5 years...

robin said...

A touching mail from an impassioned BJP supporter in Tamilnadu.This reflects the mood of the ordinary middle class voters with a nationalistic outlook


Irrespective of what anyone says I will vote for BJP candidate due to the following reasons.

1 I am voting for the lotus symbol and whoever stands on that symbol I will vote for him. Discipline is more important than personal likes and dislikes.

2 I am voting for the prime ministerial candidature of Lk Advani.

3 I am not bothered about the results and I can only do my duty.

4 I will request other members in the family to vote for the BJP.

5 I will call all my friends and tell them to vote for the BJP.

The rest is in god hands

Anonymous said...

why are the swiss reports on forged documents quoting swiss authorities turning up after four rounds of polling? Who is the 'hardnewsmedia' that broke the story? their site says 'South Asian partner of Le Monde'.

is there a signal here?

Venkatesh said...

Swapan Da,

Like a lot of others, I have the same concern. Can Navin Chawla actually doctor the EVMs? What are the BJP doing about this as this is a critical issue. ANy comments/clarifications on this issue are welcome

Anonymous said...

To the misfortune of Congress, it can add a new alliance partner to the already demoralised UPA at the cost of sacrificing another. If SP joins UPA, BSP remains outside. If ADMK supports Congress, DMK is out. If left supports UPA, Mamata will never join the alliance. BJD and TDP are in a rather awkward situation. They have burnt their fingers by snapping ties with the NDA and Congress is their principal opposition in their respective States. If at all these are talking about the Third Front, it is purely because of their compulsion. So, alliance with NDA will be mutually beneficial (Ex. AGP and INLD)for most of the regional players as they can't afford to join with Congress, Afterall, Ghoda Ghas ke sath Dosti Kar lega to Khayega Kya?

robin said...

Except Varun all were let off by EC in elections 2009 including APCC president Srinivas who threatened to chop hands,Karnataka ex cong Minister Kogadu Thimmappa who wanted to behead the opponents,Lalu who wanted to crush with road roller,Manish Tiwari of congress who wanted to cut the tongue , Cong Morcha Chairman who wanted to issue a fatwa for voting congress,Mulaym who wanted to show the woman the place,PC who merrily announced schemes in Sivaganga,TN Govt which announced and forced to cancel bus fare reduction ,Jaswant and others who offered tips for performers and countless others who did lot of violations. ECs activism began and ended with Varun

Anonymous said...

Swapan Da
watch this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEjPCIZ-rNg
perfect caricature of "Secular" media of India

Anonymous said...

Swapan da,

Give me one piece of good news: Tell me NDA is going to come to Delhi

Anonymous said...

Times of India reported that upgraded EVMs will be used for these elections.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Patna/Upgraded-EVMs-for-coming-polls-/articleshow/4196417.cms

The report of the Indiresan committee talks about the possibility of a trojan in the EVM. But the report was not able to suggest a fool-proof method to guard against this possibility. The report talks about recording every key press to detect if a trojan was activated, but a trojan can tamper with this recording once it is activated rendering this measure meaningless.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/6794228/ECI-RTI-Reply-Regarding-EVMs

Whatever happens in these electios, the EVMs should be secured against this possible attack.

parasuram81 said...

Even assuming exit polls are sometimes influenced and biased towards Congress,my hopes for BJP hav dashed simply because of the following analysis by Gujarat BJP themselves indicating better chances for congress in terms of choice.I am praying for some luck.

"Even as May 16 nears, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and his close aides have prepared a post-election assessment report, focusing on the state as well as the country, on the likely gains the BJP will make in the 15th Lok Sabha elections. In the last elections, in 2004, the party claimed 14 seats in Gujarat, while the Congress took 12.

A senior minister close to Modi, on the condition on anonymity, said that the post-election assessment suggested that the BJP will win a minimum of 17 seats and a maximum of 20 in Gujarat, while the Congress will win nine and six in each case.

"We expect major gains in Saurashtra. We are sure of winning the Jamnagar, Amreli and Junagadh seats, which the Congress took last time. We will also retain other Saurashtra seats, including Porbandar," the minister said. "We expect to get Kheda, Sabarkantha and Banaskantha, with have been with the Congress. The Congress may win seats like Dahod and Surendranagar."

At the national level, a confidant of the chief minister said, the BJP will win a maximum of 166 seats and a minimum of 144. The Congress may win a maximum of 177 and a minimum of 133 seats, he said.

But the BJP's allies - the JD(S), SS, AGP, AD, JD(U) and TRS - and possible allies - the AIADMK, BJD and TDP - will win more seats than allies of the Congress, enabling the NDA to form the government at the Centre, the BJP analysis said.

However, certain factors were ignored in this analysis, such as the role of the Left parties, BSP, SP, LJP and RJD. It also did not give much importance to Third Front parties, which may choose the Congress over the BJP at the last moment.

In either case, the Congress-led UPA will form the government, by a slightly better margin, the BJP analysis stated. In 2004, the Congress won 148 seats, and the BJP, 110.

In states like Uttar Pradesh, the BJP analysis expected a minimum of 18 seats and a maximum of 23, with the expectations for the Congress are the same. The BSP may win a maximum of 30 and minimum of 20 seats there.

In Maharashtra, the BJP expects to win 18 seats, while it expects the Shiv Sena to take 16 and the Congress, only eight.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress may win a minimum of 20 and maximum of 29 seats, while the TDP, an old ally of the BJP, may win a maximum of 16 seats. In West Bengal, the CPM may win a maximum of 30 and a minimum of 23 seats, while the Trinamool Congress and Congress may win a maximum of 12 and nine seats, respectively.

The BJP expects a minimum of 11 and a maximum of 12 seats in Bihar, with the JD(U) taking a minimum of 16 and maximum of 18; the RJD may win a maximum of 10 seats. The AIADMK is expected to take a minimum of 25 seats and maximum of 29 in Tamil Nadu, while the DMK will win six to 10 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP expects a major share, winning a minimum of 23 and maximum of 25 seats, while it expects the Congress to take four to six seats only."

Anonymous said...

anon says
Is it beyond the realm of possibility that this is a fair election in which either the BJP or INC win on their own steam?

my take
we are talking probabilty,not theoretical possibilities.So no lectures which the hypocrite congress pseudosecs are adept at sedating the other side, while they do all corrupt dirty stuff to make congress bosses win

How cum money has been stashed in swiss bank?
how cum cbi has been making flip flops and drama in its cases?
You wnat us to believe evrything is hunky dory so that congress loot and rape can be excused.Shame people have no power and water after 60 yrs,except for congress chamchas who get fed from the 60 yr loot.

chawla was intentionally chosen like patil for his loyalty.His past actions speak for themselves
just like the congress criminals.

see how they singled out varun when cothers have
convicts and hate speech has been done by all others before and after but congress has bought cec,cbi,parliament vote,media and prez who herself was corrupt because of congress culture.

u want us to ignore this.Maybe u are well fed from the swiss bank loot just like media.But stop your theoretical pseudo lectures ignoring hard reality for most indians.
they dont provide the basic to many families and their children like modi and bjp cms are doing in 5 yaers which congress did not do in 60 yrs busy looting and buying out everyone corrupt from that loot.
u like the elmedia cn afford to take this lightly because congress has served you supporters well.

parasuram81 said...

Meanwhile in the NDA camp some more good news on the ally front.7+ hopefully to its kitty.check this story out.

Sangma shifts to NDA camp
14 May 2009, 0249 hrs IST, Devesh Kumar, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA’s efforts to shore up their numbers in the post-poll scenario got a small, but significant, boost on Wednesday when
senior NCP leader P A Sangma promised his support to the alliance.

Mr Sangma, who’s extremely upset with the Congress leadership for its role in facilitating the collapse of the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance (MPA) government in Meghalaya, of which NCP was an important component, and replacing it with a Congress-led alliance dispensation, met NDA convenor Sharad Yadav here on Wednesday to discuss future plans.

The two leaders remained closeted for some half-an-hour. During this period, the JD(U) president is believed to have made Mr Sangma talk to Mr L K Advani, the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate. The former Lok Sabha Speaker, it is learnt, not only offered his daughter Agatha Sangma’s support to the alliance, but also promised to deliver at least seven MPs, all of them hailing from the north-eastern states.

Mr Yadav, when contacted later in the day, refused to divulge details of the meeting. ``Mr Sangma is an old friend. When Mr H D Deve Gowda became the prime minister in 1996, the Janata Dal played a big role in getting him elected as the Speaker,’’ the JD(U) president told ET.

Mr Sangma himself is not in the fray in this round of electoral battle, but his daughter Agatha is the NCP candidate from Tura. She had won the seat in a by-election held last year by a handsome margin of a little less than a lakh votes. The Tura Lok Sabha constituency in Meghalaya has over the past couple of decades been converted into the Sangma family’s backyard.

The NCP leader, who blames Congress for bringing down the MPA government in Meghalaya earlier this year, had campaigned for BJP candidates in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, and an array of non-Congress candidates in other north-eastern states.

Mr Sangma’s attempts to persuade the Congress leadership to prop up an alternative government in the state, comprising Congress and NCP, failed after the former joined hands with UDP, and staked claim to form the next government. The development enraged him, forcing him to make common cause with the NDA at the national level.

Mr Sangma’s decision to chart an independent course is certain to complicate matters for NCP president Sharad Pawar’s prime ministerial ambitions. Even though NCP contested the latest round of general election in alliance with Congress, it has been hobnobbing with the Left parties and other third front players in an attempt to realise his ambition of leading the next government at the Centre.

Meek shall inherit the earth said...

Congress starts the election with a tally of 275.
This is the number of votes the UPA received during the confidence vote in 2008 July. Therefore, all gains and losses for the Cong + Fourth Front + (independents supporting UPA) should be done with 275 as the base. I hope you will appreciate this point and maybe point it out to BJP spokespersons.
If the Congress + Fourth front + (independents who supported) does not reach 275, they have infact lost the mandate.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday in NDTV when Morasoli Maran Called N Ram a communist who predicted no favourable to Left. It was silly on part of Mr Maran.But it was much silly on part of Mr N Ram who became part of NDTV team and was trying to defend no like AP-UPA 29,TN-UPA 25 etc. I hope after this election he will rethink on his being part of the private channel of a "Private Party".

Srikar said...

Swapan Da,

I certainly feel that BJP is certainly better than any other political party. But if BJP is unable to gain substantial number of seats or voteshare, then the top leadership has to take blame. BJP had around 180 seats during 1999, It got 145 in 2004 and if its still unable to gain more than 169(figures as per BJP itself) then it speaks volumes of how they have been ineffective in
- working as a opposition party.
- convincing the electorate.
- unable to increase its reach.
- contain disillusionment.
- increase geographic reach.

I understand that in India voting is mainly through money power, muscle power and caste. However there are large number of floating votes. BJP has not been able to curb resentment within its own party cadre, take tough decisions and be more people centric.

Its a shame that even after 5 years of ordinary rule, BJP has to look around scouting for opportunistic parties to even make a remote possibility of governing India.

rushin said...

Swapanda, it's been too long since your last post. What's your take on Phase 5 and the overall numbers?

I, Me, Myself ! said...

Swapan Da,

From this election, I think we have learnt two things. One is that the apathy of the urban voter needs to go. The other is that though India does not have a dearth of leaders, we do have a dearth of visionaries.

I have written in more detail on my blog here:

www.election-thoughts.blogspot.com

Regards,
Sudhir

Anonymous said...

Swapanda,
Seeing the assesments of TOI and IBN yesterday did cause some worry..now I am steadfast in my belief that the channels are very very Congress biased and are trying to push other parties towards the Congress based on these numbers...but still

Anyway, u were on Times Now..their numbers dont seem to add up. They say BJP far ahead of Congress in MP,UP,Chattisgarh, JhaKhand, Bihar, Guj, Karnataka. BJP and Congress equal in Raj, Maha. BJP slightly behind Cong in Punjab, Delhi, Orissa, Haryana (all small states). And UPA decimated in AP and TN. Yet BJP behind Cong? I added up the figures they gave, and I find NDA ahead! They say UPA allies ahead of NDA allies. But current UPA allies are NCP (11), DMK(7) NC(2), TMC(10) by their ownnumbers. And NDA allies are JDU (19), SHS(12), RLD(4), SAD(3), AGP(4)...clearly NDA allies atleast ahead! Does TOI not know addition?

Over on IBN, Yogendra is obviously dead wrong in AP, Maha and Assam. That is enough to put NDA ahead.

So on the whole, not happy but not sad. Still, whats your honest take on the outcome? BJP internal survey of 212 is not too good anyway since it is bound to be biased towards the BJP.

Well, I suppose only thing left to do is to hold our breath for 2 more days...its going to be a long 2 more days :(

zoomindianmedia said...

Folks

u should hv seen yesterday ndtv prannoy roy.

You should have seen the reaction of N Ram (Editor, Communist Newspaper "The Hindu"), Prannoy Roy (Editor, Communist Channel "NDTV"), Sekhar Gupta (Editor, Indian Express, someone allergic to native Indians)

NDTV as per their deceitful legacy, wanted to provide a facade to men like Sekhar Gupta, N Ram as unbiased, which we know they are not.

Dayanidhi Maran questioned the motives of the exit study hitting out at as biased persons, spokespeoople for Communists.

Faces of these un(worthies) were worth watching then.

Maran is no holy cow. He comes from DMK and therefore he is far more brazen about his position.

Prannoy Roy, N Ram, Sekhar Gupta spent time defending their "crooked" position shown by Maran.

A Doosra Perspective said...

BJP is sure to get Ramanathapuram and kanyakumari seats in Tamil Nadu. It can also win in south Chennai. The great news is chidambaram is losing to AIADMK in sivaganga

Meek shall inherit the earth said...

A Doosra Perspective said
"great news is chidambaram is losing to AIADMK in sivaganga". Well, but it seems that Mr Kapil Sibal will win from Chandni Chowk.

Meanwhile, away from elections, we should do some serious thinking about reinventing the BJP. Here is a link to TIME magazine's lead on the Republican Party in the USA. Time asks: "Republicans in distress. Is the party over?". http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1896588,00.html

Meek shall inherit the earth said...

A Doosra Perspective said "The great news is chidambaram is losing to AIADMK in sivaganga". Good. But, Mr Kapil Sibal is likely to win from Chandni Chowk.
Meanwhile, TIME magazine carries a lead article, titled - "Republicans in Distress: Is the Party Over?". The URL is: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1896588,00.html. The article is relevant for BJP supporters who wish to see the BJP reinvent itself.

Mahesh Prabhu said...

Swapanda,

I am sure you are not writing your blog today for some reason, which you dont want to tell us.
I am shattered by the exit poll results indicating UPA coming back to power. I have lost my confidence for the day.Only you can give some confidential news and get back my confidence.

I am praying for a BJP govt.

mahesh