Total Pageviews

Follow by Email

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Third phase confusion





The gradually shrinking turnout figures--with a direct correlation to the rising mercury--is making it very difficult to say anything concrete about the outcome in terms of seats.

Moreover, in this phase there appears to be a sharp mismatch between those who have gathered quantitative data and those who rely on more conventional journalistic methods.

Where there is a conflict of conclusions I have given both views:

  • In Madhya Pradesh there is no question that the BJP has won a majority of seats. The exit pollster says it is a conclusive victory and that the BJP tally will improve over 2009. Some party activists whose views are generally reliable aren't that optimistic. They see a definite slippage in the Malwa region and final tally of BJP 20 and Congress 9.
  • The same confusion prevails as far as Karnataka is concerned. The pollsters who rely on actual exit polls say that it is a conclusive BJP victory verging on a clean sweep. Journalists who were there on polling day say that heavy voting by Muslims and Christians will see a BJP defeat in the Mangalore belt (a similar trend was reported earlier from Bangalore), This fear is shared by some senior BJP leaders too. However, the pollsters are adamant that the Congress performance has been dismal.
  • There is relatively less confusion in Uttar Pradesh. There is a consensus that Congress has done very well in Phase 3 and may win seats it has not won since 1984. It has received silent but en masse Muslim support in constituencies such as Lucknow and it has picked up Dalit and upper-caste votes too. However, it is unlikely that this will translate into victories in more than 2 to 3 seats in this phase since the party proceeds from a very low base. The BJP on the other hand may pick up anything between 3 and 5 seats in this phase. Its popular vote is thought to be fractionally below that of the BSP and SP. Like in Phase 2 the SP may be the big loser (although by way of caution let me add that a similar prognosis turned out to be unfounded in both 1999 and 2004). The BSP is picking up seats steadily but the overall tally is nowhere commensurate with what Mayawati won in 2007.
  • Apart from NDTV which is forecating a decisive 30-18 win for the Congress-NCP, other pollsters are predicting exactly the opposite result. In the 10 seats of Phase 3, the most generous tally for the Congress is 5 seats. The overall impression is one of a 50:50 divide with the BJP-SS having an advantage in terms of popular votes.
  • The direction of the overall Gujarat result isn't in any doubt. Pollsters are predicting anything between 19 and 21 seats for the BJP. The only cautionary note is that there is only a 3-4 per cent difference in the popular vote of the BJP and Congress.
  • Pollsters say that Bihar has turned out to be "one sided" in favour of BJP-JD(U) but a poll of polls among bureaucrats in Bihar says it is between 6 and 8 out of 14 for the NDA in Phase 3. I don't think Lalu Yadav will have a problem winning the second seat he is contesting.
  • There are two views on the 14 seats of West Bengal that polled in Phase 3. The pollsters are suggesting a decisive Left win with the Cong-TMC picking up at best 4 seats. I have not heard alternative suggestions.
The belief that Congress may not be the largest party on May 16 is gaining ground. In an uncertain situation there are the usual whispers of IB assessments which put Congress below 140. The political trouble shooter of a very large industrial house indicated that the present trends indicated a final tally of BJP 165 and Congress 130. Much is being made of Rahul Gandhi's "off the record" briefing to political editors on Friday morning that he wasn't bothered about what happens in the next 15 days but in how politics shapes up in 30 years time. There is also a buzz about Priyanka's interview in Outlook suggesting a very close contest. Some idiotic BJP-types are taking these bush telegraph signals to heart and dreaming about sarkari appointments. I would unhesitatingly say that they are fools because if the Congress does well in Rajathan, Punjab and Haryana in the next two phases, the whole game could change.

No election is won until the votes are counted.

28 comments:

Murali said...

Swapan Da,

Thanks as usual, also tell the guys in BJP that NDA cant form government unless BJP gets at least 170 to 175, 165 is far from enough for NDA. So they better work hard and sweep Delhi, Haryana and Uttarakhand. Every seat counts.

Anonymous said...

Swapnda,

I'am expecting BJP to get around 15 seats in Rajasthan. BJP will gain in Harayana due to the alliance with Chauthala. In Punjab there might be a loss of 5 seats for BJP-Akali Dal.

harish k said...

Swapan Ji,
Why shud we even speculate n all. Cant we just wait for till May 16th?

shrek said...

Sir,

This poll followed similar methods as yours but came up with very different conclusions. Any comments ?
http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/

reason said...

Mulayam must have known about the Muslim vote shifting to the congress in UP. That is why he chose to consolidate OBC vote by joining with Kalyan Singh. OBC consolidation is a definite possibility after Mayawati's success with Brahmin/Dalit combination. The Dalit/OBC dynamics will be clear if one reads Chandrabhan Prasad.

Mayawati's handling of Varun Gandhi issue is possibly a reaction to the OBC consolidation, to get Muslim vote.

If Muslims go to Congress, OBCs consolidate with Mulayam Singh and the Dalit/Brahmin combination still remains intact, that leaves BJP in the lurch. It could mean BJP matching congress's vote share in 2009.

Curtains then for BJP's chances in 2009.

Anonymous said...

Swapan da, these results are bad news for BJP. Losing 5 seats in MP and losing seats in Karnataka does not bode well for BJP.

If that is the case, how can BJP get 165 and Congress 130?

Anonymous said...

Hi Swapan,
I am a fan of your columns since 1990s.
Few points to note about your comments on III phase.

Actual polling in Mangalore was 75 percent. That means BJP voters have come out in full force and I believe 100 percent literate Mangalore voters(except Diehard Christian and Muslim voters) could have given a chance to Loan Mela fame Janardhana Poojary in the midst of global economic crisis. After the close of polling there is not one sure seat out of 28 for congress. More of it is due to congress self goals like denying Jaffer Sharief Bangalore Central seat, Putting Krishna Byre Gowda in Bangalore South instead of Bangalore North. Putting Moily in Chickballapur(which contains 4 Bangalore suburban assembly seats) etc.

My general observation is in 2004 at start of campaigining BJP was at 200 and congress was 100 and by time votes counted both were around 150 due to lot of BJP self goals. I believe this time both BJP and Congress started with arouund 150 and BJP graph is reaching 175 and congress graph reaching 125. I would not be surprised if congress falls below 100 this time.

ramana said...

Swapanda:

Thanks again for the trends.

I am not giving up on my fav theme : I did not see any mention of Modiji as PM having an impact (pollsters or journos).

Thanks again. :-)

ayush said...

Hi swapan da,

there is a talk of reverses in Gujrat for the BJP , in such a scenario both Modis stake for future leadership and Advanis stake for PM this time can take a jolt, I just hope BJP has not been too over confident about Gujrat and have been successful in mobilizing their voters on Poll day.

Also with the scenario you have predicted it looks highly unlikely that NDA will be able to cobble up 270 even in a post poll scenario , and any such desparate attempt can be detremental to the BJP in the long term I feel Advani is just not destined to be PM and 2014 should be targeted for a single party govt of the BJP with focus on organization in the 0 presence states and projecting Modi from now itself

parasuram81 said...

Swapanda..One thing I can surely vouch for is that in Karnataka,all the factors u mentioned r quite right but its the other side of the coin is what we have to bear in mind.The RSS this time has massively rallied behind the candidates in Mangalore and Mysore belts which in a way splits muslim n christian votes for JDS and INC respectively.So there is no way, minority tactical would match RSS organised campaign this time around..so I feel its 20-21 to BJP in Karnataka,while even in MP I found out that in Malwa region,BJP may scrape through courtesy BSP factor,so in terms of seats,again Congress will not win more than 3,4 this time too..As for UP,I entirely agree with you,the Congress vote share is up this time and BJP' seats tally will be up big time.Thanks a lot for giving both sides of the picture,even if BJP gets 165 with a lead of 30-35,I think we may see LKA as PM..Jai Hind!

parasuram81 said...

Here is something which could be good news for BJP in Karnataka.please check this link and hence my hunch that it would in fact gain a little(18+3) stands a good chance..Thanks again..

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=40056&issueid=&sectionid=90&Itemid=1&secid=0

Perumaldas said...

Swapan Da,

For the friends of BJP -

Delhi seats become even more important along with urban areas in Haryana (Gurgaon), Chandigarh etc. Focus on the BJP promises on Fringe Benefit Tax and IT Exemption. Get the salaried class votes out! SMS campaigns, Election Eve mobilisation (remember 1991 New Delhi Advaniji vs Rajesh Khanna?). The voters should know that NOW a BJP led Govt is a distinct possibility IF they vote!

Dr. Rajkiran Panuganti said...

Swapan Da,

I agree that there will be some loss in Karnataka and other states where BJP has peaked. I'm more interested in BJP's performance in UP and Bihar.

I'm also interested in BJP's performance in Telangana and Orissa.

Swapan Dasgupta said...

In response to Dr Panuganti, I have included the Bihar assessment which I had unwittingly left out. It is there in the main copy.

I don't think the BJP will win any seat in Telengana. As for Orissa, the BJP believes it will win 4 but I think 2 is more realistic. If lucky it will win 3.

Thanks to Anonymous and others for the Karnataka feedback. Please remember that I am not just providing a collation of the different perceptions of Stage 3. There is no way I can have an independent view because I depend solely on the feedback from those I consider reliable.

Maybe, as harish k suggested, we should hold our breath till May 16.

sarathy.amudhan said...

Swapan,
Is the moral code of conduct not applicable to Media. How can they go on repeating file footage of their view of the Gujarat Riots during election trying to polarise communities and causing disaffection amongst the society. Should not the election commission not step in and warn the offenders. Why should action not be taken against CBI for withdrawing the Red Corner ALert against Q, is this not a violation of the moral coe. It is clear that this has been done at the behest of their political masters.

Murali said...

Swapan Da,

Two observations on Bihar

1. Lalu did not contest any seat in phase 3. So i dont know why u are talking about lalu retaining his seat in phase 3. Pataliputra, the 2nd seat he plans to contest goes to polls in phase 4.

2. In Phase 3, Bihar went to polls only in 11 seats not 14. Hence 8 out of 11 by bureaucrats and a NDA sweep by your pollster do not look way different.

Murali

Arvind said...

Based on various exit polls (esp trends posted by Swapanda) and news reports, NDA should get around 185 seats (UP ~ 18, MP ~ 20, K'taka ~ 18, Bihar ~ 30, Guj ~ 21, Mah ~ 20, Jharkand ~ 8, Chattisgarh ~ 8, Haryana ~ 4, Punjab ~ 5, Orissa ~ 3, Bengal+NE ~ 7, Rajasthan ~ 12, HP ~ 2, Uttarakand ~ 2, Goa ~ 1, J&K ~ 1, TN ~ 1, AP ~ 3). It will boil down to TN (Jayalalithaa), AP (Naidu) and UP (Mayawati) supporting NDA. If Mayawati gets 50, she will want to be PM. If she gets 30, she will support NDA.

Let me know what you think. I haven't counted Delhi, and things in UP shouldn't be as bad as they say. If BJP did well in the first phase and we assume that means 6 seats, and if it was in a good position in 2 seats in the second phase and it will gain 4 in the third, things are good. The Jat area in UP still remains. I haven't counted Delhi because Congress seems to be strong there. BJP needs to manage the Gujjar/Meena politics in Rajasthan to get a good number. Also, what is your take on Haryana, J&K, Uttrakand and HP?

Pramod said...

Mr.Swapan what do you think are the chances of Ananthkumar from Bangalore South. Any comments?Who could be the possible people NDA Could reach out incase they emerge as the single largest party? L.K.Advani has categorically said no to Mayawati. Where else could they get the numbers from?

Anonymous said...

Hi Swapan,
Continuing yesterdays posting regarding karnataka, I looked at a column in Indian express by Aditya Sinha which predicts congress below 100(URL is http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?title=Do+the+job+yourself,+Sonia&artid=Fcy97JHTJJY=&SectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&MainSectionID=HuSUEmcGnyc=&SEO=Manmohan+Singh,+Prakash+Karat,+Bofors,+NDA,+UPA&SectionName=aVlZZy44Xq0bJKAA84nwcg==). Eventhough it is too early to count the chicken before they hatch I would not be surprised if BJP can conduct operation lotus (method used to get majority in Karnataka) on a much grander scale in Centre. The threshhold would be very low around 30 seats and that would fulfill prophecies of Meghnad Desai of BJP congress coalition at centre.
Even though I am BJP sympathizer from coastral karnataka, I believe the region is darker saffron than Gujarath or original BJP strongholds like Madhyapradesh). The anger against congress is due to Bank Nationalization when coastral karnataka was the centre of Indian Banking industry (Syndicate Bank, Corporation Bank and Canara Bank) started here. The people here believe what Ronald Regan said Smaller govt is better.
I believe national media hysteria over Mangalore is not due to pub incident (congress never referred to it in campaign here like Gujarath congress never refers 2002 riots and worked on usual caste issues (which donot work that much in coastral karnataka) and minorithy consolidation). The main reason of national hyesteria may be BJP is at the gates of Kerala and in Kasargod adjacent Mangalore BJP would have given a decent fight pushing congress to third place. Our National liberal media may not like 100 percent literate and industrially more advanced region than Kerala and vote nearly 75 percent every election and wear saffron openly like people in Mangalore do.
I never saw one news Item in National news media that Chandregowda who gave Indira Gandhi his seat way back in 1978 and cause of her political rebirth joining BJP and if you ask me a certain winner from Bangalore North against Jaffer Sharief.
I will write some other time on creeping congressization of BJP on some other time.

Satya said...

“Black money BJP’s poll stunt; religion politics dangerous: PM”

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/PM-slams-BJP-over-black-money-religion-politics/articleshow/4479402.cms

Saving Quattrocchi is not dangerous, Saving Afzal is not poll stunt?

Loosing sleep over Haneef’s issue is fine, but sleeping while terrorists attack the country is not dangerous?

Black money is Poll stunt, but lying about the state of our economy is not dangerous?

Religion Politics is dangerous, but caste/quota/afzal/shah bano politics is not dangerous?

Illegal Immigrants in Assam are not dangerous?

China’s growing interference around India is affecting us and your indifference is not dangerous?

And then they call all this an “election speech”

Ajay2 said...

Sorry Mr. Swapan, your article just says that its either a very good day for the BJP or a very bad day for the BJP! Not very informative is it!

Well, I can't really blame you, you have to work on the data you have. But how is it possible that in every single state, the 'pollster' data predicts in favour of the BJP and the 'ground report' data predicts against the BJP?

Now to the real questions, whom do we believe. You have (justifiably) refused to reveal your sources. If your 'pollster' source is Yogendra Yadav, then I'm really worried as his predictions are usually off by atleast 20%, though usually he underpredicts the BJP by 20%. If it is GVL Narasimha Rao, he would probably be giving you a BJP-biased view.

I am worried about NDTV's prediction, I find that Prannoy Roy is more often than not on the money. NDTV was the closest is predicting the 2004 election, though they too were off by about 40 seats. If Prannoy Roy says the BJP is down, we are in trouble.

Ofcourse, I do not know whether to believe people who make predictions based on incorrect numbers collected as exit polls (pollsters), or people who make predictions without any numbers at all (ground journalists). Common sense would say the former are probably marginally more accurate, but those who have tried to associate common sense and the indian election have more often than not sat in the opposition. Adding the fact that all media are known to be extremely biased against the BJP...Lets hope the pollsters are more accurate. But if BJP party functionaries are worried, thats a real problem. The ground level functionaries are much wiser than all pollsters and journalists put together.

Yogendra Yadav, in his chat on ibnlive on thursday said that low voter turnout benefits the cadre based party as a rule of thumb. So presumably the voter turnout is helping us. Your views?

Secondly, how can everyone be so confident about the Gujarat performance? If the BJP fails in Gujarat i.e. anything less than 18, we are doomed both in 2009 and 2014 - Modi will lose all credibility. If the vote share difference is only 4%....if you are wrong even by 1%, 2-3 seats could change hands.

Anonymous said...

sarathy
english media is playing this post godhra tape and tomtomming game for 7 yaers.They are hand in glove with teesta and congress.AGENDA IS TO POLARIZE MUSLIM VOTE NATIONALLY AGAINSTB BJP and they have also profited from world wide muslim interesta dn fundingask teesta and ndtv and ibn and toi etc have muslim markets on internet and tv .ndtv has license in pakistan and arabia.

they all have a interest in keeping the ppost godgra issue on boil for 7 years running.they shuld be prosecuted for stoking communal hatred.Compare with sikh riot and kashmir genocide coverage which is not even 1 % becuase there is no reward and profit there.SHAMELESS that they pose holier than thou about varun about hatespeech ignoring mautke sudagar and imran kidvai and srinivas hate speech.

ThEY always hide godhra train incident to make it look that hindus kill msulims for fun and this helps them collect funds and also helps terrorists do recruting.ThIs electronic and print MEDIA is anti-national and varun is a million times better.

Anonymous said...

sarathy
english media is playing this post godhra tape and tomtomming game for 7 yaers.They are hand in glove with teesta and congress.AGENDA IS TO POLARIZE MUSLIM VOTE NATIONALLY AGAINSTB BJP and they have also profited from world wide muslim interesta dn fundingask teesta and ndtv and ibn and toi etc have muslim markets on internet and tv .ndtv has license in pakistan and arabia.
they all have a interest in keeping the ppost godgra issue on boil for 7 years running.they shuld be prosecuted for stoking communal hatred.Compare with sikh riot and kashmir genocide coverage which is not even 1 % becuase there is no reward and profit there.SHAMELESS that they pose holier than thou about varun about hatespeech ignoring mautke sudagar and imran kidvai and srinivas hate speech.ThEY always hide godhra train incident to make it look that hindus kill msulims for fun and this helps them collect funds and also helps terrorists do recruting.ThIs electronic and print MEDIA is anti-national and varun is a million times better.

Anonymous said...

swapanda

Please use your good offices to pass this suggestion, from many bjp supporters,on to the bjp managers either directly or thru people like shourie or mitra or kulkarni etc.
may be they are doing it but just wanted to be sure.

in seats they are sure of losing ,bjp shuld ask their voters to vote strongest candidate against congress especially in TN,WB and possibly in some UP seats whre they are very weak but definitely in TN and WB

no time to lose.I WOULD HAVE SENT AN EMAIL if i knew whom to who will pass it on .THANKS for responding to this immediately to help india save itself from the upa or third fr

Anonymous said...

swapanda Please use your good offices to pass this suggestion, from many bjp supporters,on to the bjp managers either directly or thru people like shourie or mitra or kulkarni etc.
may be they are doing it but just wanted to be sure.

in seats they are sure of losing ,bjp shuld ask their voters to vote strongest candidate against congress especially in TN,WB and possibly in some UP seats whre they are very weak but definitely in TN and WB

no time to lose.I WOULD HAVE SENT AN EMAIL if i knew whom to who will pass it on .THANKS for responding to this immediately to help india save itself from the upa or third fr

Anonymous said...

Why to peep into the future ?
Why does every one wants to look at the results so early?

Sibaprasad said...

I don't know how many seats BJP is going to win this time, but I am sure that Congress is not likely to improve beyond 145. In Andhra Pradesh Congress won 29 seats on its own from the 32 it contested, in Tamil Nadu it won 10 out of 10, in Haryana 9 out of 10, in Assam 10out of 14, in Delhi 6 out of 7, in Mumbai 5 out of 6, in Jharkhand 5 out of 7 it contested. Even stunch Congress supporters won't expect a repeat of a similar performance. Only states where Congress may improve are Kerala, Rajasthan and Orissa. But, even in these states it will improve marginally because in Kerala BJP's rise will ensure LDFs victory, in Orissa Congress will be happy to improve from 2 to 6-7 at best, in Rajasthan it will gain but a complete sweep is ruled out going by assembly election results. So, if Congress manages below 130 seats,coupled with a poor show by SP, RJD, LJP, JMM, DMK will rule it out of contention to form Govt, notwithstanding the fact that Left may come around on the name of secularism, but the same can't be said out other third front partners. On the otherhand if NDA manages 200 seats with improved performance in Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, UP and Maharastra, besided holding on to Gujarat, MP, K,taka etc, than players like TRS, PRP, ADMK, MDMK, PMK and more importantly BSP may form another grouping to either support NDA or with support from NDA may form a Govt. But, 2009 election will definitely see the end of Congress rule.

Anonymous said...

Hi Swapan ji, I am from Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh a,after reading your view on Bjp's performance in Telangana I want to tell you an Impartant fact here.In Telangana people are not thinking about the agitation of seperate statehood.If you observe in 2009 elections the sentiment of sepearte telnagana not worked people are looking for Jobs and food and Etc this might be the reason for BJP which only depended on their sentiment rather than other aspects.And another thing about BJP votes.Specially In Hyderabad region BJP votes have been diverted to Loksatta because in Hyderabad the BJP's vote bank is Middle class educated .generally they vote for Bjp now the arrival of LOksatta could reduce the Bjp to second place in most of the places in hydrerabad.So Bjp may not get a Single MP seat from Hyderabad but the poll percentage would give optimism to BJP because it is not even 50% in that 50 also more voters from lower middle class and poor people utilised their votes.